Bears vs Commanders on Thursday Night Football

Best Player prop bets

Get Ready For Some Offense

Quick recap on last week: Our logic was dead on thinking the game was going to go over. What we didn’t get right is that GB’s defense would be porous against the run and that the Lions would actually stick to the run even on 4th down at the 4 yard line. To be a good sports capper you have to have a short memory and lack of emotion – to time to move on.

Last Week’s Results- 1-2 for -1.1 units.

Season’s Results- 1-2 for -1.1 units.

You know what they say – if at first you don’t succeed, then run your head into a brick wall until it comes breaking down from your stubbornness (or something like that). So with that..

We like the over in this game. Both defenses have, to put it frankly, been bad, actually very bad. While both team’s offenses have been up and down a bit, they should find some success here. Time to dive into each team’s breakdown.

Breakdown of the Teams

Chicago Bears

Bear’s Offense- Well the Bear’s as a whole have been one of the worst teams in the NFL, but the lone bright spot for one game has been the Bears offense and a glimpse into what Fields can actually do when his timing is on and the offense is moving. Keep in mind this comes in a game against the Bronco’s defense – the same D that tried to set a high score for ineptitude against Maimi the week before.

Where they found success against Denver was keeping pressure off of Fields. Fields coming into that game was the most pressured QB and Denver struggled to apply pressure only getting to Fields 29% of the time. This allowed Fields to get in a rhythm and Chicago to hang 28 on the day.

Bear’s Defense- There is not a single stat about the Bears’ defense that is not ugly. They are dead last in the pressure rate, they have allowed the most QB rushing yards, and are bottom two in every major defensive stat and would be dead last if not for Denver’s quest for historically being the worst defense in the NFL. What really sticks out for me is the pocket time the defense allows opposing QBs. They allow a full second more time for QBs than the 30th ranked team, they are dead last in the category, and if it wasn’t again for that team in Denver they would be dead last by miles. Needless to say, you want to play guys against the Bears’ defense if you are a fantasy person.

Washington Commanders

Washington’s Offense- Washington in terms of scoring is in the middle of the pack, but when you dig into advanced metrics its not pretty. They allow the highest pressure ratio to 4 or less man fronts. They are blitzed the least in the league, yet still allow the 6th most pressure. The run game is not much better as they are 14th or worst in every major running statistic for a team.

Why on earth would we target the over with this team? Well, like most teams in the league, when they keep Howell upright they find success. The two games they did a better job protecting Howell they scored 35 and 31. Howell seemed to get in a much better rhythm after he was able to get outside the pocket and run a bit. I suspect if Chicago doesn’t get pressure on him, he will find success and, well, Chicago doesn’t get pressure on anyone.

Washington Defense- This is probably the biggest head scratcher coming into this season along with Minnesota’s ball control, and Pat Mahomes + Burrows poor performances. Washington had high hopes for its defense and with a defensive minded coach looked to lean on this unit for success while Howell got his feet set in the NFL. It has been anything but that for Washington. Besides holding the lowly Cardinals to 16, Washington has allowed 30+ points in its last three. Every single touchdown this season, besides one pick six in the Bills game, was given up by the defense. Washington is top 10 in rushing defense but that is only because every team has found resounding success in the air against them. The Washington pass defense is ranked 30th only behind Chicago and Denver. They do not pressure the QB like they used to and even though they blitz the QB with 5 or more people, the 6th most in the league, they are bottom 10 in QB pressures.

Player Prop Bets and analysis

DJ Moore, Over 51.5 receiving yards, +120.

This is a bit of an aggressive play, but I love it. Most books at the time of writing this have the line somewhere between 45 and 47 for -110 odds. My model does not have the difference in percentage success all the way up to 55.5 receiving yards but the sweet spot in ROI was at +120 below 53 yards. DJ Moore has over a 40% target share and has 52% of Chicago’s passing yards. As mentioned earlier, I think Fields will stay upright and be able to move the ball down the field through the air. If Fields can get to 220 yards, which is the current over/under, I see 0 reason why DJ Moore will not get over 51 receiving yards. Add on that they might get some garbage time plays in a shootout. I like this prop.

Sam Howell, o15.5 Rushing Yards, -110

QB rushing yards are always an iffy bet for me, but Chicago gives those yards up in droves and Howell has shown his ability to move recently. He was featured at Carolina with his legs and the Commanders are starting to see it more and more. Last week against the Eagles, Howell was able to get to 40 yards rushing with two QB draws designed specifically for him. This is an easy area to attack Chicago, and I think we could cash this prop on a single run from Howell.

Sam Howell, rushing or receiving over 0.5 TDs, +350.

This one is only a half unit play, but I am doubling down on the Howell rushing special. My model has him scoring 27% of the time on the ground and at +350 odds, we would only need to win 22% of the time. We have gone over all the reasons why ChiTown is a good team to target QB running, so we are hopeful he can punch it in on one of those runs.