Lions vs Packers on Thursday Night Football
Best Player prop bets
what you need to know about The Game
It’s Thursday night football and that means its player prop time. Tonight we are going to go with some correlation prop bets that should see us a hit on a high percentage of the time.
We have Green Bay at home vs Detroit. Detroit is currently a 1.5 favorite at the time of writing this with an over under of 44.5. Currently that means Vegas has the game capped at 23 to 21.5 in favor of Detroit winning. I actually think that is low but I have learned over the years I am just not smarter than Vegas. So for the entirety of this article we will use these numbers to make our plays.
Breakdown of the Teams
Green Bay Packers
Defense- All I have read all week long is how Green Bay defense has only allowed for three passing TDs in 3 games and its a head scratcher because what is not being talked about is that those three games came against the Bears, Falcons, and Saints (keep in mind the Saints game Carr was knocked out of that game). That means the GB defense has played 2 of the worst QBs in the league. Metrics would even say the two worst and most inaccurate QBs in the league. In the third game Carr left with a 14 point lead and was 13-18 and had a touchdown pass on his stat line. I think GBs defense is a bit inflated by weaker opponents here.
Offense- While the GB defense has had a comedic schedule of ease the defenses that the GB offense has faced is a whole different story. New Orleans will most likely be a top 5 defense and for sure will be in the top 10 in most categories. Atlanta’s defense has been sneaky good keeping the Desmond Ridder lead team in games, and well we can just write off the Bears – they are in disarray. Despite facing these defenses, Love has found a way to score and he has done that without Christian Watson the whole season and Aaron Jones for two games, multiple offensive line injuries, and negative game scripts. Thursday, both Watson and Jones are trending to play and this will be the healthiest we have seen the GB offense.
Defense- The Lions D has been a mixed bag. They held the Chiefs to 20 points in the NFL opener, but they were without Kelce and had a shockingly bad 15% drop rate from WRs. They let the Seahawks offense get on track scoring 37 and finally took care of business against Atlanta which once again Ridder might be the worst QB in the NFL. The Lions were dealt a huge blow with Gardner-Johnson going to IR in the second game, which leaves the secondary short handed again.
Offense- Detroit has been able to score 20+ in all three games and against stiff defenses. The Chiefs are top 3 in points allowed per game and Atlanta is 7th. They are doing it through the air as well coming into the game with a near 4 to 1 passing to rushing yards ratio. The team is built around throwing the ball and Goff has shown he can carry the team the past year and 3 games.
Player Prop Bets and analysis
Jordan Love OVER 231 passing yards -110. As stated before, I think this game has a better chance to go over than become a defensive dog fight. Love got on a bit of a roll and gets some offensive weapons back against a much weaker defense.
Jared Goff OVER 1.5 passing TDs -132. I have actually read a couple of write ups talking about GBs defense and why Goff wont throw for two TDs. I am not buying it and going contrarian. GB’s defense has feasted on probably the worst passing attacks in the game and still managed to give up a TD in each game. The Lions have not run the ball well and even more so they run it worse in the red zone. It will be on Goff to score and I am not so sure we won’t see a garbage time TD from Goff trying to make up 10 or more points late in the game.
Pick One Of These-
Sam LaPorta TD +220 or
Amon-Ra St Brown OVER +75.7 Receiving Yards
So let’s chat – I think LaPorta would be the positive deviation pick over the course of the season, but these are picks for one night. My model has him in the endzone 37% of the time and at +220 32.5% or more is profitable. Making this bet over the course of the season should net you positive returns that said you have a 63% chance of losing this bet by my odds. This pick is going to be my bet. Again, Detroit doesn’t run well, so we are betting Goff is good for 2 TDs and LaPorta is his best red zone target.
If you want slightly better odds of the bet actually hitting you can run to Amon-Ra St. Brown. The slot receiver is quite frankly the man in Detroit’s offense, and based on projections for a high scoring game, this has Goff dropping back more and the more he drops back the more you can bet the son god will see his targets. Full disclosure, I will not be taking this bet because I don’t want 3 of the same deviation bets in one game.
Why not take a receiver prop for Green Bay if we have Love’s yardage prop? Well I would love to actually have Love hitting the over more than Goff hitting 2 passing TDs (I still like both bets). The problem is we have so much uncertainty around GBs offense. Does Watson play and if so how much? Same for Jones. If we catch wind that Watson will sit out again, I would hurry and try and catch any line for Luke Mustgrave over receiving yards all the way up to 39.5.