Home-field advantage is a well-documented phenomenon in sports, and the NFL is no exception. In fact, home teams in the NFL have won over 50% of their games for the past two decades.
Home teams won 55.6% of their games in the NFL in 2022. This is slightly higher than the average home team win percentage over the past 30 years of 52.6%.
However, when it comes to betting on NFL games, the value of home-field advantage is not as clear-cut. Overall, there is no one “full proof bet” when wagering on the NFL. However, by understanding the factors that can affect home field advantage, you can increase your chances of success when betting on NFL games.
In recent years, home teams have not been as successful against the spread as they have been straight up. In fact, in the past five seasons, home teams have only had a winning record against the spread twice. This suggests that the value of home-field advantage in terms of betting may be declining.
Home teams in the NFL have won against the spread an average of 50.5% of the time over the past 10 years. The highest home team win percentage against the spread in the past 10 years was 52.8% in 2013, and the lowest was 47.8% in 2019.
The average home team win percentage against the spread over the past 30 years is 52.6%.
What’s the reason for the declining advantage in home field advantage? Might be-
- The increasing parity in the league. There are now more competitive teams in the NFL than ever before, which makes it more difficult for any one team to consistently win at home.
- The rise of analytics. Teams are now using more sophisticated analytics to make decisions about game strategy, which can help them to overcome home field advantage.
- The impact of technology. Technology has made it easier for teams to communicate and collaborate, which can help them to play more effectively on the road.
It might also be that teams are simply getting better at traveling. In the past, teams that traveled long distances often had trouble adjusting to the time difference and the different playing conditions. However, with the advent of better travel accommodations and more sophisticated training methods, teams are now better able to handle the challenges of travel.
Another possibility is that the spread is becoming more accurate. In the past, sportsbooks may have been too generous in giving home teams an advantage in the point spread. However, as sports betting has become more popular, sportsbooks have become more sophisticated in their analysis of teams and games. This has led to more accurate spreads, which has made it more difficult for home teams to cover.
Of course, there are still some factors that can give home teams an advantage in betting. For example, home teams typically have a larger crowd, which can create a raucous atmosphere that can be difficult for opposing teams to overcome, so taking into account which team (think loud stadium), might affect the numbers. Additionally, home teams are often more familiar with their own stadium and field conditions, which can give them a slight edge.
Overall, the value of home-field advantage in NFL betting is declining. However, there are still some factors that can give home teams an advantage. If you are looking to bet on NFL games, it is important to consider all of the factors involved, including the point spread, the home team’s recent performance, and the stadium atmosphere.
Want to learn more about the statistics involving home field advantage? Check out these sources-
- A study by the Journal of Sports Economics found that the home-field advantage in the NFL has declined in recent years. The study found that home teams in the NFL had a winning record against the spread only 52.3% of the time in the 2010s, compared to 55.4% of the time in the 1990s.
- A study by the website FiveThirtyEight found that the home-field advantage in the NFL has declined in recent years, especially in close games. The study found that home teams in the NFL were only 51.7% likely to win close games (within three points) in the 2010s, compared to 56.2% likely to win close games in the 1990s.
- A survey of sports bettors conducted by the website SportsBettingDime found that 63% of bettors believe that the home-field advantage in the NFL has declined in recent years.
So bottom-line is that the value of home-field advantage in terms of betting appears to be declining. BUT, it is important to note that these studies are based on historical data, and the value of home-field advantage may change in the future…and if we could predict the future, we wouldn’t be writing this…Gamble On Fellow Degenerates!
